Trackhouse Aprilia effectively inherited a line-up of riders in its first MotoGP season, as there was absolutely no doubt as its entries came together that it could lead anyone but Miguel Oliveira and Raul Fernandez on its debut.
The contestant's first big decision hasn't come yet, but it's coming. And while this decision may end up being another Oliveira/Fernandez season, it will still be different – a choice that has more to do with Trackhouse and how it plans to handle its rider strategy, rather than a relic of the RNF era.
In any case, the chance of Trackhouse making some kind of change seems very high at the moment. The elephant in the room is current Moto2 rider Joe Roberts – Trackhouse owner Justin Marks doesn't want a token or fast American racer in his line-up, but he's clearly keen to get one sooner or later, and Roberts is much more credible now than he was just months ago .
But there may also be a play on some of MotoGP's established riders who will end up missing out – and some will inevitably lose out – in the current game of factory riding musical chairs.
Everyone in MotoGP was recently reminded of what a factory-spec Aprilia RS-GP car can do when Maverick Vinales swept the Circuit of the Americas, so Trackhouse should have a good show to do there.
So Oliveira and Fernandez will have to fight for their ride, and above all, as always in motorsport, they will have to fight each other. The Trackhouse is potentially the best gig available for 2025 – any suggestion of the possibility of a move to the Aprilia works team or another factory ride seems incredibly far-fetched at the moment.
In terms of track record, there's no competition. One of these riders has five MotoGP championship victories in 88 Grands Prix, while the other has not even managed to crack the top four in 41 races.
But that's not how MotoGP teams make their decisions. If that had been the case, it would have been Brad Binder, not Oliveira, who would have vacated his KTM seat for Jack Miller.
And regarding the classic “what have you done for me lately” question, the Oliveira vs. Fernandez fight in 2024 was inconclusive.
Yes, Oliveira is leading the standings, 23 points to 12, and yes, he is coming off a high-quality Jerez round. But they are 2-2 in qualifying, and 3-3 in terms of races (including the sprints) where they both finished – which would be 4-2 in favor of Fernandes had he not suffered a tire pressure penalty at Jerez.
So, it's really close – but it's also not a like-for-like comparison. Oliveira is on the 2024 bike which he had difficulty cornering, while Fernandes is on last year's bike and was generally happier with it.
The engine difference will be minimal, but the 2024 version – built on more downforce – looks more credibly competitive, especially in Vinales' hands (even if he and Oliveira still won't be using the 2024-spec seat unit).
Meanwhile, Fernandez benefits from great continuity between what he rode last year and what he is riding now, while Oliveira seems to have lost his balance by skipping a step.
It's a muddy picture but with a clear solution – one that Aprilia and Trackhouse will implement, albeit perhaps a little later than ideal for evaluating riders.
What were initially non-committal suggestions that Fernandes would be promoted to the 2024 bike at some point mid-season, have now become much closer to a statement of fact – with Romano Albesiano, Aprilia's head of technology, confirming in Jerez that a Fernandes upgrade is coming and admitting it will “definitely” “Easier once the entire list is in the 2024 bike specs.
But the timing remains a bit ambiguous. For now, Fernandez got his first – limited – taste of the latest machine on Monday after the Spanish Grand Prix.
Raul Fernandez in April 2024
“It's a completely different bike to ride. You need time to understand the aerodynamics.
“For me it was better – I needed time, but for me it was a little better than the 23. I can’t tell you that the 23 is a bad bike, I’m happy with my bike. For the future maybe [the ’24] It's another step for us.
“In the data we saw that [in the fast corners] It's almost the same thing. We did eight or nine laps, which wasn't enough to really know if it was fast or not.
“The feedback in some corners is much better than the 23 bike. [But] When you have a test, no pressure, you have a new bike, everything becomes very easy. We need to know [what it’ll be like] When we have the bike on a race weekend, with the same conditions, just through two practices – later I can tell you something.”
Fernandes was somewhat unsure about the prospect of a mid-season promotion when the season began, but his tune has changed.
It could be a double-edged sword for him – especially if he doesn't click with the newer RS-GP straight away, like Oliveira – but he wants a straight fight.
“If I had the possibility, I would prefer to have the same material in all products [other] Aprilias, let's see where we are.
“Because it's always hard to know now.
“For example, in America, I was very competitive – but [compared] With the lap of last year. “I want to know where we are with the same bike.”
It would be very helpful for Trackhouse and Aprilia to know as well.
Oliveira appears to be making progress in the RS-GP – he was the highest-placed Aprilia rider in the Spanish Grand Prix after a strong effort. But the case for him being the fastest Aprilia at Jerez is not very strong, and the way he spoke after the race suggests he still knows there are a few things missing.
If he rediscovers the form at which he started his career at Aprilia last year, through testing and the opening match before his injury, Trackhouse would be foolish to abandon him.
But for now, and assuming the 2024 Aprilia represents the direction of the manufacturer's development with its future bikes, pitting Oliveira against Fernandez – and Fernandez against Oliveira – on that machine as soon as possible is a no-brainer for everyone involved.
However, for now, we will remain in a bit of a holding pattern, without a complete picture for Trackhouse to head into the 2025 talks.
