Carlos Sainz's choice of where he will go after leaving Ferrari at the end of 2024 is more complicated given how Williams has ramped up its continued interest.
Williams' pursuit of Sainz is not as surprising a development as it seemed at the start of the Monaco Grand Prix weekend, as it has already been months in the making.
As previously reported by The Race, Williams has made its long-term plans clear to Sainz for some time now, and Fowles has continued to make convincing performances.
But it was widely seen as a wildcard option for Sainz, who was expected by almost everyone to join Audi's project at Sauber if his bid to hold out for a potential seat at Red Bull proved futile.
What Williams did through his perseverance was more impressive than he initially thought. Sainz takes this option seriously.
Williams is not on the same level as Haas and Alpine. Both have not been ruled out by his management and there have been talks. But that's just due diligence. Williams even more so.
Reading between the lines, it is believed that the negotiations have developed to the point of offer and counter-offer: with Williams arriving at something that Sainz considers satisfactory.
This is important for two reasons. Firstly, to hire a driver, it is obviously important to offer a deal that he is willing to accept. But secondly, it shows Sainz that Williams is serious about him, has the resources to back up that seriousness, and the commitment to keep at it.
But any financial reward is largely a second-tier priority for Sainz as he chooses the team that best suits his needs.
He wants a race-winning car, but if he ends up getting a serious shot at Williams, it will be because he can't get it. Then it comes down to other factors: belief in the project, the right environment, and commitment for the right duration.
This last point can be very important. Audi are a works team keen to lock down Sainz for the long term, at least three years. A two-year Williams deal with an option for a third by Sainz would give more flexibility if he wants the option to leave for 2027 as seats open up elsewhere and the pecking order in the new 2026 rules era becomes clear.
That could be a huge advantage for Williams, who will then back themselves to prove to Sainz that he is worth sticking with for longer.
The weird thing about Sainz's two main options is that they are largely based on default progression. The potential paths are encouraging – and Audi's ceiling as a works team is higher than Williams' – but both teams are mired in problems.
Williams is somewhat less bad but neither has scored a point in 2024. It's not an enviable choice for the multiple Grand Prix winner to make his next move.
So Williams complicates matters. If only Audi had been in the picture, Sainz would have been dealing with a simpler scenario. Sauber isn't perfect, but Audi's impending era makes it a top reserve. You take what you can get.
Williams seems to unexpectedly give him a serious choice between two projects with big question marks and a long list of slightly different pros and cons. Audi has enough of the latter as a new engine manufacturer and a company taking over a struggling current team so that the door is at least open for Williams to swoop in.
Fowles is a big reason for that. It has already been key to re-signing Alex Albon to a multi-year deal, which is why a Williams team that is performing worse than it was 12 months ago escapes with relatively little scrutiny beyond plenty of coverage about a myriad of unusual details. for various aspects. From the terrible year 2024.
For now, Fowles is getting the benefit of the doubt due to the long-term malaise he is constantly trying to rescue Williams from, as well as the numerous problems the team is known to have from its facilities to its culture. He speaks well, confronts problems, and has clear ideas for solutions.
This may end up being nothing more than talking about a good game. But there will have to be time to figure that out – Albon is willing to give him that, and Sainz is clearly open to the idea of discussions getting that far.
What is not clear is where the limit of good faith toward Fowles and Dorilton's vision lies. There's a big difference between being convincing enough to be taken seriously and being worth committing to.
Sainz may decide that the clouds above Williams are too big to admire. It will depend on his gut feeling, what suits him best now and during the period that he wishes to remain tied down in what will be – one way or another – a marriage of convenience.
But until that decision is made, it is impressive that Williams has made a strong enough case not only to remain in contention but to position itself as Sainz's main alternative to an Audi move that many believe is anything but a done deal.
